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‘People willfall for it like a drug' —Game devson the futureof VR “像毒品一样让人不能自拔” ——游戏开发者如此评价虚拟现实类游戏的未来 Industry luminaries discuss the promise and pitfalls ofimpending headsets with Ars.
Part 1
业内领军人物与Ars①杂志的记者们一起讨论了即将推行的头戴虚拟现实视图器的前景与风险。 Say hello to the HTCVive Pre—the near-final version of the VR system. The headset comes completewith two tracking wands and two laser-tracking stations. 来认识一下试行版的HTC“活力”（Vive）这是最接近虚拟现实最终系统版本的装置了。这款头戴显示器配备两个追踪游戏手柄和两个激光追踪装置。
Recent version of the Oculus Rift in its carryingcase. 最新版本的Oculus VR公司发行的一款虚拟现实装置正静静地躺在包装盒里。
An early prototype of the Rift is watching yoooooooou. 早期的Rift原型机正在看着你。
Gaming Editor Kyle Orland does his best Lawnmower Manimpersonation using an early Oculus Rift in 2013. 2013年，游戏编辑凯尔·奥兰使用早期的Oculus Rift装置，在《异度空间：割草人》③中获得了他最佳的角色扮演体验。
Any excuse to show Ars' Sebastian Anthony in a Viveheadset circa Spring 2015 is a good one. 大概是在2015年春天，Ars记者塞巴斯蒂安 ·安东尼尝试了“活力”（Vive）头戴视图器装置。毋庸置疑，这是一次很好的体验。
作者：凯尔·奥兰 2016年3月1日 下午5：50（中欧标准时间）
Nine years ago, when thefirst iPhone was about to debut, not many people envisioned arevolution that would fundamentally change the shape of the game industry (forgood or for ill). Today, as we await the impending release of high-end consumervirtual reality headsets from the likes of Oculus, Valve, and Sony, it feelslike we're at a similar crossroads. 九年前，当苹果手机第一次出现在人们视线中，没人会想到这款手机会从根本上卷起游戏产业的革命风暴（不论影响好坏）。而如今，当我们期待Oculus、维尔福、索尼等厂家的高大上的虚拟现实装置时，好像又走到了历史的交叉点。
Unlike the slow, quiet dawnof smartphone gaming, the hype around VR has been building to a relentless,deafening pitch for years. Yet despite this hype, theindustry and those watching it seem relatively split on the eventualimpact of VR gaming. It could be a smartphone-leveltechnological change—the biggest the gaming industry has seen inyears—or it could be a quickly irrelevant fad on the order of the Wii orKinect. 与智能手机游戏市场垂暮之景不同，近些年来，对虚拟现实产品的大肆宣传不断，甚嚣尘上，已达顶峰。尽管如此，对于虚拟现实游戏最终会带来怎样的影响，厂商与那些持观望态度的业内人士却有所分歧，各持己见。它有可能会在智能手机层面引起一起技术性的变革，而这其中的变革也将是近几年游戏产业里面最大的一次；或者它跟产业变革毫无关系，会随着Wii 或者Kinect之类产品可以开始订购后而从市场隐去 。
The answer to that questionwill determine the state of the video game market for years to come. So as manyof the industry's biggest names gathered for the DICE Summit and Awardsceremony in late February, I asked everyone I could get my hands on what theythought virtual reality gaming would look like a decade from now. The range ofresponses shows just how unsettled, and unsettling, the fate of the latestvirtual reality boom really is. 这一问题的答案将会决定未来几年电视游戏市场的生存状况。所以在去年2月，众多游戏产业巨头参加的DICE④峰会和颁奖典礼上，我询问了所能接触到的在会的每个人对未来十年虚拟现实游戏的发展有何看法。收到的回答从不同层面上向我们展示了突然兴起的虚拟现实热潮，它的命运将是跌宕起伏，令人不安的。
Lessons of the past 曾经的教训 Those that have been in theindustry long enough to remember the last wave of VR hype, back in themid-'90s, largely agree something feels different this time around. "Wewanted Snow Crash to happen, and then we put onthe things, and it was just Pterodactyl Terror, and weall threw up," said Double Fine founder Tim Schafer (Monkey Island,Psychonauts). Perhaps it's telling he misnamed the less-than-impressive '90s VRinstallationDactyl Nightmare, butSchafer is confident in the present. "I think there's been ahuge leap [this time]." 那些经历过上世纪90年代的VR热潮的业内人士认为这次流行和以前不太一样。DoubleFine（发行过猴岛大英雄和精神世界）的创始人提姆·谢弗说道：“我们希望类似小说《雪崩》⑤里面的情节会发生，结果我们捣鼓出来的东西就是翼龙恐惧，然后我们全都放弃了。”也许他把90年代并不特别惊艳的虚拟现实游戏达克堤利梦魇叫错了名字。但是谢弗对现在充满了信心：“现在技术已经有了质的飞跃。”
"I remember when LawnmowerMan came out, or Disclosure," freelancegame writer RhiannaPratchett (Mirror's Edge, Tomb Raider [2013])said, recalling the pop-culture obsession with virtual worlds at the time."Everyone was saying, 'Oh, it's going to take over,' and then it wentapproximately nowhere. It's got its foothold now, and I think that's important.It's here." 独立游戏设计师蕾哈娜·普莱契（作品有镜之边缘、古墓丽影2013）回忆上世纪90年代虚拟现实造成的热潮：“我记得《异度空间：割草人》上映或是《桃色机密》⑥出版的时候，每个人都在说：‘啊，这将会流行起来！’然后它几乎消声觅迹了。现在它已经站住了脚，而且我认为那很重要。它已经在这里了。”
"I remember when theVirtual Boy and the Power Glove came out," prolific video game voice actorTroy Baker (The Last of Us, Bioshock Infinite) said. "I used to play Battletech where youwent to [an arcade]... I definitely believe we'll get there [this time],because what games have shown us is a trend towards more immersive content. Themore that we can bring about that immersion into gameplay, it's really whatpeople want. To me, [VR] is the most immersive thing that you can get, wherethe reality that you're touching and experiencing is theworld that these people create." 多产的游戏电子游戏配音演员特洛伊·贝克（主要作品有美国末日/末日余生，生化奇兵：无限）说道：“我还记得当虚拟男孩和威力手套（注：任天堂的游戏）这两款游戏发行的时候，我还曾在游乐场的游戏机上玩过暴战机甲兵。我认为虚拟现实会取得成功的，因为现在游戏潮流更趋向拟真体验。如今我们可以让玩家体验更真实的游戏场景，这正是玩家们想要的。对我而言，VR是最真实的游戏装置，在游戏里可以接触和体验设计师们创造的世界。”
Even some who didn't bring updirect experiences with the VR of decades past think there's an air ofinevitability about the current virtual reality push. "The question iswhether it happens now or whether we have to wait a little longer for it,"DICE Studios Senior Producer SigurlinaIngvarsdottir (Star Wars Battlefront)said. "I think we're due for virtual reality becoming really mainstream.I'm not sure whether it's 10 years or 20 years, but Ithink at some point down the line we're going to make that leap." 即使那些对虚拟现实过去几十年发展历史不熟悉的人也认为，现在这场虚拟现实的热潮也是不可避免的。“问题在于它是现在发生还是需要我们等的时间要久一些。”DICE工作室高级制作人西格里娜•因格瓦斯多提（主要作品：星球大战：前线）如此说道。“我认为虚拟现实成为主流是理所应当的。我不确定它需要十年还是二十年，但在某个时刻我们会完全迈出那一步。”
"I do see that tech assomething that will become mainstream for us," Tom Lee, creative directorat Team Ninja (Dead or Alive 5), said. "I don't think it's a fad, I don'tthink it's a niche. I think it has enough not just tech, but enough personalityfor a lot of us creators to do things that we were never able to do, so I thinkit's definitely here to stay." “我觉得这项技术会变成主流”忍者团⑦创意总监汤姆·李（代表作：死或生5）说道。“我并不认为它只是一时的兴起，也不是有特定顾客群需求的专营市场。它不仅有足够的技术含量，还有足够的特性能够让许多像我们这样的制作者们去尝试那些从未做过的事情，所以我觉得它肯定会继续存在下去。”
And now for somethingcompletely different 完全不同的现在 The ability to createexperiences unlike anything that's possible in a traditional gaming on a 2Dscreen was a recurring theme as I asked attendees about VR's future potential. "I was a little skeptical when I first put themon, but I have to say I was really blown away," Fallout 4 LeadProducer Jeff Gardiner said. "I felt emotions that I think were impossibleto reproduce without that medium—a real sense of fear, a real sense of wonder." 当我问及与会者有关虚拟现实未来潜力的问题，他们的回答总是有着一个相同的主题，那便是和传统2D游戏相比，VR游戏有着无可比拟的拟真体验。辐射4首席制作师杰夫·加德纳表示：“我已开始还有点不信，当我带上VR时，我整个人被震惊到了。戴上VR我体验到其他游戏装置不能做到的感觉——一种真实的恐惧感和惊奇感。”
How much have things really changed since virtualreality games like Dactyl Nightmare failed to set the world on fire? 自达克堤利梦魇这样的虚拟现实游戏并没有像预期那样火遍全球之后，这个行业又真正改变了多少？
In particular, Gardinerrecalled a moment in an HTC Vive demo in the Portaluniverse, where"they open up the thing in the bottom of the floor, and I honestly feltfor a second... my gut reaction was a fear of falling. No matter how good youdo on a 2D screen, you can't reproduce that." 特别是加德纳回忆他在HTCVive样机上玩宇宙门户时，有一瞬间“当底层舱门打开的时候，说实话有一秒钟我感觉......我的本能反应便是一种要坠落时候的恐惧。无论2D游戏做的多好，都不能再现出那种感觉”。
"I think it has so much potential for greatstorytelling, so much potential everywhere," Pratchett added. "Beingable to put players into a relaxing environment, there are health benefits in thatalone. Take away narrative and just transport me to a beach, or a jungle, orthe countryside if you live in the city, or the city if you live in thecountryside. That'sreally exciting." “我认为虚拟现实游戏在情节创作方面还有很多提高空间，其他方面也还有待提高，”普莱切特补充道：“VR可以让玩家沉浸在一种舒适的环境下，这种环境对健康有所帮助。丢弃了传统游戏的叙事风格，仅仅是让我体验虚拟的沙滩、丛林，或是让居住在乡村和城市人们体验彼此的居住环境。那听起来真的很棒！”
To those who might thinkVR hype is being pushed by clueless moneyed investors trying to force demandfor an unwanted product, Supergiant Games Amir Rao (Transistor, Bastion) says the intereston the development side is real. "Thething I have noticed, at least among people I know who work in VR, is thepassion is really crazy high in a way I think is pretty inspiring to see. Howexcited the people who are working on either the hardware or the software orcool new games or solving new problems, is how thrilled they are to be doingthat stuff. That,to me, is a good sign. 有些人可能会认为虚拟现实的过分宣传是由那些无知的有钱的投资者一手策划的，为的是推动消费者对这不需要的产品产生需求。对此超星游戏公司的埃米尔·劳表示在虚拟现实游戏开发方面的兴趣却是真是存在的。“我所注意到，至少在我认识的那些在虚拟现实行业工作的人中，他们对该项技术的热情空前高涨，这的确振奋人心。无论他们专长是攻关硬件或软件，或是开发很酷的新游戏，或是解决运行中出现的新问题，他们对待这项技术都如同本职一样的热爱。对我来说，这是一个好的信号。”
Put the brakes on the hype train是时候抑制VR的恶性炒作了
For all the over-the-top love from many industry movers and shakers, therewere just as many reactions ranging from somewhat skeptical to downrightbearish on the VR hype. Even some who saw the potential for the technologycouldn't quite see the path to large-scale, mainstream success in the near future. 许多行业内呼风唤雨的巨头对虚拟现实有着过分的喜爱，对此也有许多人持怀疑或是彻底的否定态度。即使有些企业承认VR技术的潜力，还是认为短期内它不会成为行业的主流。
"I'm still having a hard time with it taking off," Mortal Kombat co-creator and NetherRealm Studios founder Ed Boon said. "I don'tthink it's going to take over like console games. It's very immersive, but youreally need to commit to the experience. It's not like a phone experience,where you take it with you while you're in the car or something like that.[But] I think its novelty is so powerful that there will always be a place forit." 黑暗领域工作室的创始人艾德•伯恩（魔鬼帝国系列游戏的联合创始人）谈到；“现在脱掉VR装置非常费劲，我不认为VR游戏能像主机游戏一样占领整个市场。你要知道，VR装置特别庞大，而且你需要熟悉它的操作。它不像手机那样可以在车里或者其他公共场所使用。但我认为这一新奇的技术在市场中总会有一席之地。”
The high initial cost of VR headsets (and the additional hardware needed to run them) was also a concern forsome in the industry. "I think where we're at right now, it's still verymuch an installation thing," Baker said. "I don't know what's goingto bring it into the living room. For Oculus, they just announced you're goingto need a $1,500 computer... $2,000 if you want to get it specced out the wayyou want. That's a big price point, so I think it's going to be early adoptersthat have to really push it in." 对行业里的一些人来说，VR头戴显示器（以及附加的需要运行的硬件设施）初始花费过高是一个需要考虑的问题。“我们现在所讨论的，很大部分仍然是安装的问题。”贝克说：“我不知道玩家怎么把VR安装到客厅。比如Oculus，商家说你需要1500美元左右的电脑，或者为了让画面更流畅可能需要2000美元的电脑。这可是一大笔钱啊，所以我认为将会需要一些早期采用者来真正地推动这项技术。”
Others saw the initial high prices as a natural starting point for a newmedium. "It's early tech, right?" Moon Studios' GennadiyKorol (Oriand the Blind Forest) said. "It's going to be expensive, the firstrevision is always going to be rough. The first iPhone wasn't perfect either,right? It will take a couple of iterations, but there's no doubt that it's thefuture of entertainment." 其他人认为新兴媒体本来在早期就会非常昂贵。月亮工作室的乔纳蒂•克罗尔（代表作有奥日和黑暗森林）谈到：“VR现在肯定会很贵，而且第一代产品会做的很粗糙。就像第一代苹果手机也不是很完美，不是吗？VR肯定需要数代的更新才能趋于完善，但是毫无疑问它将是娱乐产业的未来支柱。”
Even assuming the price point eventually comes down, getting virtualreality in front of people is going to be a difficult but important step tobuilding the market. "I think a lot of us in the industry debate howquickly things are going to grow," Insomniac President and CEO Ted Price(Spyro the Dragon, Ratchet & Clank) said."Right now, early adopters for VR are highly enthusiastic and are going todrive a lot of the market. But to ensure that it goes mainstream, I thinkpeople are going to have to try it. That means it has to be accessible. Youhave to be able to try it at stores, at your friend's house, wherever you want.I think content has to be there to drive players and consumers in general toVR." 即使假设在价格这一点上最终会有所下降，怎样让虚拟现实技术出现在大众面前是建立市场关键而困难的一步。“我觉得，我们行业里的许多人都在争论新事物的产生和发展是多么的迅速。”Insomniac game(失眠游戏)的主席和CEO 泰德•普莱斯（代表作有小龙斯派罗和瑞奇与叮当）说道：“现在，VR的早期采用者热情高涨，他们将会在很大程度上推动这一市场的发展。但是想要产品成为主流，最重要的是让玩家有机会试用它，那意味着大众必须能够接触到它。不管是在商店，在朋友家里，还是任何想去的地方，你都能够去体验。所以我认为游戏的优质内容对吸引玩家和消费者很重要。”
注释： ①Ars Technica：美国知名科技博客媒体，创办于1998年，隶属于康泰纳仕集团，它发布新闻、评论和指导，如计算机硬件和软件、科学、科技政策和游戏视频，是IT专业人士和技术爱好者的首选。 ②HTC Vive ：由HTC与Valve联合开发的一款VR头显（虚拟现实头戴式显示器）产品，于2015年3月在MWC2015上发布。 ③TheLawmower Man: 又名天才除草人，是第一部建立在虚拟空间的电影。 ④DICE Summit: 电子游戏行业年度集会，D.I.C.E分别为Design, Innovate, Communicate和Entertain的缩写。 ⑤《雪崩》：第一本以网络人格和虚拟现实的初步暗示为特色的塞伯朋克小说 ⑥《桃色机密》：本文指的是书，有关虚拟现实方面的相关书籍，除了上文提到的雪崩，再者就是这个桃色机密。 ⑦忍者团：日本一家电子游戏制作工作室，成立于1995年
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发表于 2016-12-3 09:55:44
