To stayin the euro zone, Greece’s prime minister will have to jettison almost everypromise he has made to his own voters
为了留在欧元区，希腊总理不得不放弃先前对投票者做出的每一个承诺
Jul 11th 2015 | BERLIN AND BRUSSELS |
Like most things deemed unthinkable, Greece’s departure from theeuro zone has been thought about a lot. Its open discussion at the highestlevels of the European Union, though, has long remained taboo. The two weekssince June 26th, when Alexis Tsipras, the Greek prime minister, abandoned talkswith the EU and IMF on a further bail-out and called a referendum on theirterms, have put paid to that. Most euro-zone leaders now believe Greece has noplace in the euro. Even those genuinely supportive concede that things may notgo their way; François Hollande, the French president, openly discussed Grexitat the euro-zone summit which took place in Brussels on July 7th. On the sameday Jean-Claude Juncker, the president of the European Commission, announcedthat the commission has a fully realised plan for Grexit.
正如大部分事情令人匪夷所思一样，希腊退出欧元区这个问题一直被人们反复思量。这个议题在欧盟最高级别的议题中，一直以来都是一个禁忌。自从6月26日起，这两周以来希腊总理阿莱克斯·齐普拉斯拒绝同欧盟和国际货币基金组织官员的谈判，此谈判要求希腊政府进一步采取纾困措施，并且按照他们的条例号召全民公投。但是这种“拒绝”也最终化为泡影。大部分的欧元区领导人如今认为希腊在欧元区已没有容身之地。即使是那些真正支持的人也不得不承认他们无法心想事成。法国总统奥朗德7月7日在布鲁塞尔举行的欧元区峰会上公开协商讨论希腊的退欧问题。同日，欧盟委员会主席容克宣布，委员会对此已有了一个全面且可行的计划。
Whether that plan will be put to use depends on discussions setfor Sunday July 12th. Donald Tusk, the president of the European Council,describes this as Greece’s “final deadline”. The leaders of the 19 euro-zonecountries will discuss a list of reforms and cuts that Greece was due topresent after The Economist went to press. That list is intended toconvince Greece’s euro-zone partners to begin negotiations on a new three-yearbail-out. The same day will see a summit of all 28 European Union leaders at whichpreparations for Grexit will be discussed in earnest. The leaders will discusspost-Grexit humanitarian aid to be paid for out of the EU budget (it was as anet contributor to that budget that Britain insisted on all 28 being involvedin the discussion). Mario Draghi, the president of the European Central Bank(ECB), will explain measures for seeing off speculators looking to attack otherweak links in the euro zone. Legal niceties aimed at allowing Greece to leavethe euro zone without quitting the EU—an eventuality for which there is neitherprecedent nor protocol—may be discussed, too.
这个计划是否将付诸实施，将依照于7月12日星期天的谈判来决定。欧洲理事会主席唐纳德·图斯克把它描述为给希腊的“最后期限”。19个欧元区国家领导人将讨论一系列针对希腊的改革和削减方案（在经济学人印刷版付印之后）。这些方案旨在说服希腊的欧元区伙伴国开始协商有关新的为期三年的救助计划。同日，全部28个欧盟成员国领导人会参与峰会，并认真探讨为希腊退欧做准备的事宜。领导人将商议希腊退欧之后的人道主义援助，费用由欧盟预算承担（正如一个净援助国提供一项预算，英国坚持要所有28个成员国都要参与讨论一样）。欧洲央行行长马里奥·德拉吉解释道，这项措施意图是赶走投机者对欧元区其它薄弱环节的“金融分裂”行为。法律的细枝末节目的在于允许希腊政府在欧盟保有一席之位的前提下退欧——而这种可能性既无先例也无协议——或许也会再议。
Duringthe brief referendum campaign MrTsipras urged Greek voters to reject theearlier bail-out terms, assuring them that a strong No vote would strengthenhis bargaining position in Brussels. They duly gave him the No he wanted; butthe creditors he had walked out on, and insulted during the campaign, werequietly planning to greet him on his return with a tougher line—and hisrhetoric gave them a new stomach for Grexit if he did not toe it.
在简短的公投运动中，齐普拉斯敦促希腊选民否决早些时候的纾困计划条款，向他们保证，这张强有力的反对票可以巩固他在布鲁塞尔的谈判地位。他们的确给了他这张他想要的反对票；然而债权国却违约，并在公投运动期间“羞辱”希腊。他们秘密计划对他采用更为强硬的路线——如果他没有引起足够警觉，那么他的说辞会使他们找到新的理由让希腊退欧。
Atthe July 7th meeting they made their position abundantly clear to MrTsipras onfour counts. First, the short-term loans his government had sought would not beforthcoming in the absence of a full bail-out. Second, there could be nobacktracking on commitments the Greeks had already made on issues such aspension reform and value-added tax. Third, reforms must come before anydiscussion on restructuring Greece’s debt, which is now almost 180% of its GDP(the issue could be revisited in October, mused MrJuncker). And finally, thethird bail-out would involve fresh conditions in areas like product-marketreform and collective-bargaining rules.
在7月7日的会议上，他们非常明确地向齐普拉斯表明了他们的四点立场。首先，如果缺乏全方位的纾困计划，那么为政府寻求短期贷款也无济于事。其次，希腊政府在养老金改革和增值税等方面的问题上，可能不会背弃先前做出的承诺。再次，改革必须在有关希腊债务重建的讨论之前提出，现在债务几乎达到了GDP的180%（齐普拉斯揣测此问题可能在十月重议）。最后，第三个纾困方案将涉及新环境下的产品市场改革和集体议价规则等领域。
Toagree to this would cut against everythingMrTsipras’s government has done thisyear. But as the rest of the euro zone has been arguing repeatedly over thepast weeks, Greek democracy does not enjoy priority over everyone else’s, and thevoters in many other countries are fed up with bailing Greece out.
为了达到上述四点，就要叫停齐普拉斯政府今年一切的所作所为。然而过去几周以来，欧元区其余国家一直对此争论不休。希腊的民主并没有享有比其它国高的优先权。许多其他国家的选民对救助希腊一事心生厌烦。
ShouldMrTsipras somehow find the stomach to submit reform proposals that theEuropeans find credible, plenty more hurdles remain before any funds can bedisbursed. A sum must be agreed on: one senior commission official puts it atup to €100 billion ($111 billion), and notes that the figure rises every day ascapital controls eat into Greece’s economy. Greece would have to beginimplementing some of its reforms. And several euro-zone parliaments would haveto assent to a third bail-out.
齐普拉斯心中总该有提交改革提案的想法，在这方面欧洲其他国家已经找到了可信的方案。在拨出款项之前，依然还有很多的障碍。这笔款项必须达成共识：一位委员会高级官员要保证开支最高不得超过100亿欧元（113亿美元），并注意那些随着资本管制侵蚀希腊经济而每日上升的数字。希腊必须开始实施其改革。几个欧元区议会将同意给予希腊第三次纾困救助。
Greece’smost vocal foes in recent weeks have been the euro zone’s poorer members, suchas Slovakia and Lithuania, who compare the Greek record on reform unfavourablywith their own. Germany has been more restrained, exercising its responsibilityas the euro zone’s de facto leader. But a new deal would be highly unpopularthere, both with the people and the politicians.
近几周，希腊的反对者多为欧元区经济实力较弱的成员国如斯洛伐克和立陶宛。这些国家在改革上的记录与希腊比相形见拙。作为欧元区的实际领导者，德国行使其职责，更多地呈现出一种克制的态度。无论对其国民还是对其政要而言，开展的新政将会非常不得人心。
TheBundestag would have to vote twice to pass a new bail-out: once, to authoriseAngela Merkel, the chancellor, to negotiate it; again to ratify it. The SocialDemocrats, the junior partners in her government, would probably be willing toback her. The party has historically been supportive ofGreece although its boss, Sigmar Gabriel, is one of those to have taken a muchmore hawkish line since MrTsipras called his referendum. Mrs Merkel’s bigger problem is her own parliamentarygroup, consisting of the Christian Democratic Union and its more conservativeBavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union. Many in the CDU resentedbeing cajoled into backing an extension to Greece’s second bail-out inFebruary. In recent weeks the chorus of CDU and CSU memberscalling for a Grexit has grown. Mrs Merkel will prevail in the votes, but she will beweakened and embarrassed in the process. Much depends on how enthusiasticallyher finance minister, Wolfgang Schäuble, helps her sell a deal in parliament.MrSchäuble sees the Greeks as an impediment to his dream of deepeningintegration among the other euro-zone members; in Athens he is thepersonification of German cruelty.
德国联邦议院将对这项新的纾困方案举行了两次投票：一次由默克尔总理授权，由其谈判商议后再批准。默克尔政府的新伙伴社会民主党或许愿意支持她。这个政党在历史上是支持希腊的，然而在齐普拉斯要求进行公投之后，西格玛尔·加布里尔便采取更为强硬的姿态。默克尔总理面对的更大问题在于她的议会团体包括基督教民主联盟和更为保守的巴伐利亚姐妹党。多数基督教民主联盟憎恨哄骗他们支持希腊于二月份的开展的第二次纾困计划的拓展。近几周以来，基督教民主联盟和基督教社会联盟成员要求希腊退欧的呼声不断高涨。默克尔总理将在选票中获胜，但在这一过程中她的势力可能会被削弱并因此受挫。这很大程度上取决于其财政部长朔伊布勒在议会上帮她“宣传”她的计划的积极程度。朔伊布勒把希腊看作是他“与其他欧元区国家加强融合“这一梦想的绊脚石。在雅典，他象征着德国的残暴。
The fundamental flaws
根本性缺陷
However it ends, the Greek crisis has raised anumber of awkward questions. The role of the ECB, which has been keeping Greece’s banksalive, is one. Nicolas Véron, a senior fellow at the Bruegel think-tank, notesthat the way in which the euro zone is governed puts the ECB in an “impossibleposition”. The bank is the closest thing to a federal agency in the euro zone,and therefore carries much of the decision-making burden, particularly in timesof crisis. But because there is no central political authority, everygovernment wants a say. That exposes the ECB to political pressure, not leastvia its own governing council, which includes the central-bank governors of all19 euro-zone countries. One day it faces accusations of meekly doing thecreditors’ bidding by turning the screws on the Greeks by limiting the banks’liquidity, causing them to close. The next it is accused of a leniency thatcomes close to violating its own prohibitions on monetary financing of states.
无论结局是什么，希腊危机已经引起许许多多的棘手的问题。比如，欧洲中央银行一直起着维持希腊银行继续生存的作用。尼古拉斯•维伦作为布吕格尔智囊团的一名资深研究员，注意到欧元区的管理模式会使欧洲央行陷入“无能为力的境地”。欧洲央行在欧元区最靠近联邦政府机构，因此承担许多决策的责任，尤其在危机时期。但是由于没有一个中央政治权力机构，所以每个政府都想拥有发言权。这使欧洲央行暴露于政治压力之下，尤其是通过自身的理事会，它由所有19个欧元区国家的央行行长组成。当它受到债权人的指控时，他们将通过投标拧紧希腊人的"经济阀门"，限制其银行资产的流动性，最终导致银行关门大吉。其次，它被指控宽大处理违反国家货币融资禁律一事。
A related, even deeper problem is an unavoidable part of acurrency union not backed by a political one: democratic deficit. Greece’screditors are right that 18 members of the euro zone cannot be bound by thedecisions of one. At the same time if Greece remains in the euro it will bebecause MrTsipras has had to capitulate entirely despite clear backing from hisfellow citizens. At best, that will leave Greeks feeling more demoralised thanever, and probably more embittered. Conditions agreed to under duress may notbe met; stereotypes of bloodsucking Germans and indolent Greeks may spread.“It’s starting to eat Europe,” says a demoralised EU official. The sort ofpolitical imagination needed to help Europe’s citizens see each other as thesame sort of people involved in a common project has never been more necessaryand less apparent.
一个连带甚至更深层次的问题是货币联盟缺乏一个真正意义的政治后盾——民主赤字，这部分是不可避免的。欧元区的18个成员国不能被一个国家所约束，在这一点上希腊债权人是对的。与此同时，假若希腊依然留在欧元区就会让它留，因为齐普拉斯不得不完全屈从，尽管他的同僚之民完全支持他。充其量会让希腊人比以前更加沮丧，或许更加痛苦。在胁迫之下达成的条件可能未必能实现。残酷野蛮的德国人和好逸恶劳的希腊人这样的固有形象在人们心中到处可见。“那是吃掉欧洲的开始，”一位沮丧的欧盟官员如是说。这种政治想象需要帮助欧洲公民把彼此视为同类，他们有着共同的目标，这个目标从未如此必须，也从未如此不明显。
Suchconcerns will not soon be addressed; more immediate tasks are at hand as Greeceis either bound back in to the euro zone in a way not to its liking or pushedout. Mr Tusk, for one, is worried about Grexit playing to Russia’s advantage.And MrTsipras faces a grim dilemma: to betray the hope he stirred in thelong-suffering Greek people, or to lead them to a devastating Grexit they donot want.
此类问题可能不会很快解决，当务之急是希腊要么跳回欧元区（某种程度上并不是它心之所向），要么离开。就图斯克而言，他担忧希腊退欧会使俄罗斯获利。齐普拉斯陷入两难抉择之中：要么违背对长期受苦的希腊人民许下的承诺，要么带领他的人民被迫退出——这是他们不希望看到的结局。
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发表于 2015-9-26 15:28:54
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