【齐心抗疫】华南海鲜市场或非影响全球的新冠病毒来.....

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Wuhan seafood market may not be source of novel virus spreading globally
华南海鲜市场或非影响全球的新冠病毒来源地

By Jon Cohen Jan. 26, 2020 , 11:25 PM

[img] https://www.sciencemag.org/sites ... 2.jpg?itok=Vxj0cdGH[/img]

As confirmed cases of a novel virus surge around the world with worrisome speed, all eyes have so far focused on a seafood market in Wuhan, China, as the origin of the outbreak. But a description of the first clinical cases published in The Lancet on Friday challenges that hypothesis.
随着全球新冠肺炎确诊人数急速增长，武汉华南海鲜市场站到了舆论的风口浪尖，被认定为此次病毒的发源地。但权威医学杂志《柳叶刀》上周五发布的一篇论文中关于第一批临床病例的描述，却让医学专家们对此产生了怀疑。

The paper, written by a large group of Chinese researchers from several institutions, offers details about the first 41 hospitalized patients who had confirmed infections with what has been dubbed 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV). In the earliest case, the patient became ill on 1 December 2019 and had no reported link to the seafood market, the authors report. “No epidemiological link was found between the first patient and later cases,” they state. Their data also show that, in total, 13 of the 41 cases had no link to the marketplace. “That’s a big number, 13, with no link,” says Daniel Lucey, an infectious disease specialist at Georgetown University.
这篇论文是由多个研究机构的中国学者共同撰写的，追踪了第一批确认感染新型冠状病毒的41名住院患者的病例。据论文描述，第一名确诊患者于2019年12月1日发病，未发现其与华南海鲜市场有接触，且论文强调“此名患者与后续患者间亦无流行病学上的联系”。论文数据还显示，追踪的41名患者中，共有13人与华南海鲜市场无关联。美国乔治城大学的传染病学专家丹尼尔•卢西（Daniel Lucey）说：“无联系的有13个，这可不是一个小数目。”

Earlier reports from Chinese health authorities and the World Health Organization had said the first patient had onset of symptoms on 8 December 2019—and those reports simply said “most” cases had links to the seafood market, which was closed on 1 January.
而中国卫生部门及世界卫生组织(WHO)的早期报告显示，首例患者于2019年12月8日出现病征。这些报告仅称“大部分”患者接触过华南海鲜市场。该市场已于2020年1月1日关闭。

Lucey says if the new data are accurate, the first human infections must have occurred in November 2019—if not earlier—because there is an incubation time between infection and symptoms surfacing. If so, the virus possibly spread silently between people in Wuhan—and perhaps elsewhere—before the cluster of cases from the city’s now-infamous Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market was discovered in late December. “The virus came into that marketplace before it came out of that marketplace,” Lucey asserts.
卢西称，如果最新发布的论文数据准确，根据潜伏期推算，最初的感染病例早在11月（甚至更早）就出现了。也就是说，病毒可能在武汉乃至其他地方的人群中悄悄地传播了一段时间，才在12月末于华南海鲜批发市场集中爆发。卢西说：“市场仅是爆发地，病毒的来源可能是别处。”

Kristian Andersen, an evolutionary biologist at the Scripps Research Institute who has analyzed sequences of 2019-nCoV to try to clarify its origin, says the 1 December timing of the first confirmed case was “an interesting tidbit” in The Lancet paper. “The scenario of somebody being infected outside the market and then later bringing it to the market is one of the three scenarios we have considered that is still consistent with the data,” he says. “It’s entirely plausible given our current data and knowledge.” The other two scenarios are that the origin was a group of infected animals or a single animal that came into that marketplace.
美国斯克里普斯研究所的进化生物学家克里斯蒂安•安德森（Kristian Andersen）致力于分析新型冠状病毒的基因序列，试图弄清其来源。他认为，论文中披露的首例病患确诊时间“值得令人探究”。安德森说：“从最新的数据和消息来看，不排除病毒是被感染者带入市场的这一可能性。除此之外，我们还在考虑病毒可能是被一只或一群受感染的动物带入市场的。”

Andersen posted his analysis of 27 available genomes of 2019-nCoV on 25 January on a virology research website. It suggests they had a “most recent common ancestor”—meaning a common source—as early as 1 October 2019.
安德森于1月25日在一个病毒学研究网站上公布了他对27个现有新冠肺炎病毒基因组的分析结果。该结果显示，病毒基因组共同的源头最早于2019年10月1日出现。

Bin Cao of Capital Medical University, the corresponding author of The Lancet article and a pulmonary specialist, wrote in an email to Science. Insider that he and his co-authors “appreciate the criticism” from Lucey.“Now It seems clear that [the] seafood market is not the only origin of the virus,” he wrote. “But to be honest, we still do not know where the virus came from now.”
《柳叶刀》论文的撰写者之一，北京首都医科大学的肺部专家曹彬教授曾给《科学》杂志写了一封邮件。邮件中表示，他与其他撰写者都“非常感谢卢西的意见”。曹彬教授写道：“由如今情况来看，比较清楚的是，华南海鲜市场可能不是唯一的病毒发源地。但目前，我们仍无法确定病毒的真正来源。”

Lucey notes that the discovery of the coronavirus that causes Middle East respiratory syndrome, a sometimes fatal disease that occurs sporadically, came from a patient in Saudi Arabia in June 2012, although later studies traced it back to an earlier hospital outbreak of unexplained pneumonia in Jordan in April 2012. Stored samples from two people who died in Jordan confirmed they had been infected with the virus. Retrospective analyses of blood samples in China from people and animals—including vendors from other animal markets—may reveal a clear picture of where the 2019-nCoV originated, he suggests. “There might be a clear signal among the noise,” he says.
卢西指出，当初引起无规律性、致命性的中东呼吸综合征（MERs）的冠状病毒，于2012年6月在一名沙特阿拉伯患者身上发现。但在后续研究中，两名于同年4月死亡的患者的医疗样本分析结果显示，病毒实际来源于4月在约旦医院爆发的不知名肺炎。因此卢西认为，为了确定新冠肺炎的来源，有必要对华南海鲜市场及其他动物交易市场中的摊贩和动物进行血样采集，并进行回溯性分析。他说：“从大量的数据中或许能找到清晰统一的来源地。”

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ljs610330@sina.

回复少不等于阅读人少。期待后续，感谢。

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ljs610330@sina. 发表于 2020-2-8 11:41
回复少不等于阅读人少。期待后续，感谢。

谢谢关注！！！么么哒～